Právě teď je ideální čas na pořízení hypotéky. Nabídne-li nám banka hypoteční úvěr na 40 a více let, postavme se do fronty. Splácet jej budeme ne více než 10 let.
V devadesátých letech, kdy stát v zájmu rozhýbání podnikatelského prostředí podporoval úvěrování všech bez ohledu na podnikatelskou historii (neboť nikdo logicky neměl podnikatelskou historii), se úvěry rozdávaly po chodbách. Již kultovní jsou historky o tom, jak podnikatelé žádali úvěr 20 miliónů s tím, že takový úvěr dokážou splatit, a odcházeli s úvěrem 30 miliónů a s radou, aby se o splácení nestarali. Na účet samozřejmě obdrželi 20 miliónů. Dnes je situace v něčem podobná a v něčem odlišná.
Banka si formálně prověřuje naši bonitu. Někdo z nás je vyhodnocen jako úvěru obdrženíschopný, jiní jsme vyhodnoceni jako úvěru obdrženíneschopní. Základním kritériem je víra banky v to, že úvěr splatíme. Dává-li nám banka úvěr na 40 a více let, jak je to s vírou ? Víra je nepřenosná na nástupce bankovních manažerů. Dnešní schvalovatel úvěru nemůže vědět, co by udělal jeho nástupce za 20 let. Víra musí být opřena o věrohodnou předpověď budoucnosti.
O budoucnosti nevíme zhola nic, nebo víme velmi málo. To ovšem nevylučuje to, že existuje skupina lidi, kteří o budoucnosti vědí všechno, nebo vědí velmi mnoho. V kombinaci s faktem, že existuje jediný důvod, proč nám banka odpustí další splácení – když banka přestane existovat, a my spolu s ní – je tu vcelku přehledný scénář, co bychom nyní měli udělat. Koneckonců ti, co vědí všechno nebo alespoň velmi mnoho, nám to skrytě, a občas otevřeně, říkají už nějaký rok. Dobrý voják Švejk patřil mezi ně: Vy myslíte, že to světapán takhle nechá bejt? To ho málo znáte. Vojna s Ruskem musí být. Zabili jste mně dolar, tak tady máte přes držku. Válka jest jistá. Bude se to řezat.
Sejdeme se ve frontě. Pak se sejdeme na frontě.
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